The French government is accelerating its response to the ongoing trade war. In a televised interview on TF1 on April 9, just hours after the new tariffs were implemented and following Donald Trump’s recent policy shift, Economy Minister Eric Lombard revealed that the growth forecast for France in 2025 has been adjusted downward. This announcement was made ahead of a public finance conference set for April 15. The growth estimate has been revised from 0.9%, as stated in the 2025 budget presentation, to 0.7%, taking into account the prevailing uncertainties. This updated forecast aligns with the latest economic outlook from the Banque de France, the country’s central bank.
Lombard’s revision is less drastic than the one suggested by Prime Minister François Bayrou, who, in an April 5 interview with Le Parisien, estimated that the trade war could reduce France’s growth by 0.5 percentage points. Had Lombard echoed this assessment, the growth prediction for 2025 would have been adjusted to 0.4% instead of 0.7%.
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While the Economy Ministry’s outlook is more optimistic than that of the prime minister’s office, it remains less favorable than the projections from the French Economic Observatory (OFCE). In its forecasts released on April 9, the OFCE predicted a growth rate of only 0.5% for France in 2025, with a rebound to 1.1% in 2026. Previously, the OFCE had anticipated a growth rate of 0.8% for 2025. According to their analysis, the immediate effects of the tariffs and economic uncertainties are expected to cost France 0.6 percentage points of GDP this year. In contrast, Italy, which is more susceptible to the American tariffs than France, has reduced its 2025 growth forecast to 0.6%.
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