Poles began voting on Sunday, June 1, in a closely contested presidential election with significant implications for Poland’s role in Europe, as well as for abortion and LGBTQ+ rights.
Warsaw’s pro-EU Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, 53, an ally of the centrist government, is facing off against nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki, 42, with opinion polls indicating a race too close to call.
Polls close at 9 pm in the EU and NATO member state, which shares a border with Ukraine and has been a key supporter of its neighbor in the war against Russia. An exit poll is expected immediately after the polls close, and election officials anticipate that the final result will be known on Monday.
A victory for Trzaskowski would provide a major boost to the progressive agenda of the government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a former European Council president. It could lead to significant social changes, such as the introduction of civil partnerships for same-sex couples and a loosening of the near-total ban on abortion. In Poland, a fast-growing economy of 38 million people, the president has the power to veto legislation and serves as commander-in-chief of the armed forces.
A victory for Nawrocki would embolden the populist Law and Justice (PiS) party, which governed Poland between 2015 and 2023, and could potentially trigger fresh parliamentary elections. Many Nawrocki supporters advocate for stricter immigration controls, conservative values, and greater national sovereignty within the European Union.
The election is also being closely watched in Ukraine, which is seeking to strengthen international diplomatic support in its negotiations with Russia as its resistance to Moscow’s invasion continues. Many Trzaskowski voters support deeper integration within the EU and the acceleration of social reforms.
Nawrocki, an admirer of former US President Donald Trump, opposes NATO membership for Kyiv and has called for limits on benefits for the estimated one million Ukrainian refugees residing in Poland.
During his final campaign hours on Friday, Nawrocki laid flowers at a monument commemorating Poles killed by Ukrainian nationalists during World War II, stating, “It was a genocide against the Polish people.”
The election’s final outcome is expected to depend on Trzaskowski’s ability to mobilize sufficient support and whether far-right voters will support Nawrocki. In the election’s first round, Trzaskowski secured a narrow lead with 31% of the vote, compared to 30% for Nawrocki, while far-right candidates collectively garnered over 21% of the vote.
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