Kaduna State Governor Uba Sani has dismissed claims that northern voters are turning against President Bola Ahmed Tinubu ahead of the 2027 presidential election, predicting that the President could secure between 70 and 80 per cent of votes cast in Kaduna State.
Sani made the prediction during an interview while discussing the changing political landscape and growing competition ahead of the 2027 election. He argued that claims of widespread northern opposition to Tinubu do not reflect the situation at the grassroots.
Sani Rejects Northern Backlash Narrative
The Kaduna governor strongly rejected suggestions that northern voters have abandoned the President.
Furthermore, he argued that much of the narrative about growing opposition to Tinubu comes from political discussions and social media activities rather than the actual mood among voters.
According to Sani, voters will ultimately assess the administration based on its performance and the impact of government policies on their daily lives.
He therefore believes that the political situation in the North remains more favourable to Tinubu than some opposition narratives suggest.
Kaduna Could Produce a Major Turnaround
Sani’s prediction is particularly significant because Tinubu performed below Atiku Abubakar in Kaduna during the 2023 presidential election.
Atiku secured 554,360 votes, while Tinubu received 399,293 votes in the state.
However, Sani argued that the political circumstances that produced that result have changed significantly.
He believes the factors that influenced the 2023 election should not automatically determine the outcome of the 2027 contest.
The governor specifically pointed to political realignments within the state as one reason for his confidence.
Southern Kaduna Political Realignment
According to Sani, the movement of politicians from opposition parties into the All Progressives Congress (APC) could significantly influence the next presidential election.
Furthermore, he highlighted developments in Southern Kaduna, where political alignments have changed since 2023.
The governor argued that several influential politicians who previously supported opposition parties are now closer to the ruling APC.
Such movements could strengthen the party’s grassroots structure.
They could also improve its ability to mobilise supporters across different parts of the state.
Federal Projects Could Influence Voters
Sani also highlighted federal government projects and interventions in Kaduna as factors that could influence voters.
Furthermore, he mentioned the establishment of a Federal University of Science and Technology in Southern Kaduna and the development of a federal medical centre.
The governor believes projects of this nature could influence public perceptions of the Tinubu administration.
For him, voters are more likely to consider tangible developments than political arguments circulating online.
Performance Will Remain Important
The governor maintained that Kaduna voters are politically conscious and unlikely to accept campaign promises without demanding explanations.
Furthermore, he argued that politicians should clearly explain how they intend to finance their promises before asking citizens for support.
This position places emphasis on measurable performance rather than political rhetoric.
Sani believes voters should examine what governments have achieved and determine whether proposed alternatives are realistic.
APC Must Strengthen Its Grassroots Presence
Sani also stressed the importance of grassroots mobilisation ahead of the election.
Furthermore, he dismissed the idea that presidential elections can be won mainly through television appearances, social media campaigns, or political activities concentrated in Abuja.
According to him, serious political campaigns require direct engagement with voters across communities and wards.
This approach could become particularly important in Kaduna because of the state’s complex political landscape.
El-Rufai Factor Remains in the Background
Political developments involving former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai could also influence the state’s political calculations ahead of 2027.
However, Sani avoided focusing heavily on personalities and said his priority was strengthening the APC.
Furthermore, he maintained that he respects former political leaders but does not intend to engage in personality-based politics.
His approach suggests that the governor wants the APC campaign to focus primarily on its organisation, achievements, policies, and grassroots mobilisation.
Tinubu’s Northern Strategy
The debate over Tinubu’s support in the North is likely to become increasingly important as the 2027 election approaches.
Furthermore, northern states remain critical to presidential electoral calculations because of their large voter populations and geographical spread.
Kaduna occupies a particularly important position within that equation.
A significant improvement in Tinubu’s performance there could strengthen the APC’s broader northern campaign.
However, translating political projections into actual votes will depend on campaign organisation, voter turnout, public sentiment, and the performance of competing parties.
Economic Performance Could Shape the Election
Sani’s argument also places government performance at the centre of the coming political contest.
Furthermore, issues such as food prices, employment, infrastructure, security, energy costs, and household purchasing power are likely to influence voters.
The Tinubu administration will therefore need to demonstrate that its economic reforms and development programmes are producing meaningful improvements.
At the same time, opposition parties will seek to convince voters that they can offer stronger alternatives.
Looking Ahead
Governor Uba Sani’s prediction that President Tinubu could secure between 70 and 80 per cent of Kaduna’s votes represents a dramatic improvement over the President’s 2023 performance in the state.
The prediction also signals the APC’s confidence that political realignments, federal projects, grassroots mobilisation, and the administration’s performance could significantly reshape Kaduna’s electoral landscape.
Nevertheless, the 2027 election remains ahead, and political support can change as campaigns intensify and voters assess competing platforms.
Ultimately, Sani’s projection reflects the APC’s confidence that Tinubu can transform his electoral position in Kaduna, but the strength of that prediction will ultimately be tested by the choices voters make across the state when Nigerians return to the polls in 2027.
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