Nigeria’s crude oil and condensate production has increased by 80 percent over the past three years, reaching approximately 1.824 million barrels per day, according to the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri.
Lokpobiri disclosed the figure during an engagement with media executives, saying production stood at less than one million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate when the current administration assumed office in 2023. The latest figure, he said, reflects increased activity and investment across the upstream oil and gas industry.
Production Recovery Gains Momentum
The reported increase represents a significant change in Nigeria’s oil production trajectory.
For years, the country struggled with declining output caused by ageing infrastructure, crude theft, pipeline challenges, underinvestment and operational disruptions.
However, production has gradually recovered as operators bring more assets online and improve production and evacuation systems.
Against that background, Lokpobiri’s latest figure points to continued momentum in the sector.
Active Drilling Rigs Surge
One of the clearest indicators of renewed activity, according to the minister, is the increase in active drilling rigs.
Lokpobiri said Nigeria had fewer than 10 active rigs when the administration came into office. He said the country now has more than 70 active rigs.
That represents a major expansion in drilling activity because rigs are essential for developing new wells and expanding production capacity.
Moreover, the minister said increased drilling demonstrates that investors and operators are becoming more active across Nigeria’s oil-producing regions.
According to him, drilling a well can require investments running into tens of millions of dollars, depending on whether the operation takes place onshore or offshore.
Investment Returns to the Upstream Sector
Lokpobiri also linked the production increase to renewed investment in Nigeria’s oil and gas industry.
The Federal Government has continued to highlight rising production and drilling activity as evidence of improving conditions within the upstream sector.
The government has attributed the broader improvement to reforms aimed at creating greater regulatory certainty, improving the investment climate and resolving longstanding challenges within the petroleum industry.
Consequently, the government expects increased investment to translate into additional exploration, new wells and higher production.
Indigenous Producers Gain Greater Role
Another development highlighted by Lokpobiri is the changing structure of Nigeria’s upstream industry.
He said indigenous companies now account for about 60 percent of local oil production, while international oil companies have increasingly redirected their investments towards deep offshore operations.
This shift follows major divestment transactions involving international oil companies and Nigerian or indigenous-led operators.
The changing ownership structure could have important implications for the domestic petroleum industry because stronger indigenous participation can expand opportunities for Nigerian companies across exploration, production, services and supply chains.
Deep Offshore Projects Could Add More Output
Beyond current production, the Federal Government is also counting on major deep offshore developments to strengthen Nigeria’s future output.
Projects involving major operators, including developments such as Bonga North and other offshore investments, are expected to contribute to future production capacity.
At the same time, the government has continued to encourage exploration in frontier and inland basins.
Therefore, the current production recovery forms part of a broader strategy to increase both existing output and future reserves.
Reforms Remain Central to Government Strategy
Lokpobiri attributed the improvement in the sector to reforms implemented under President Bola Tinubu’s administration.
The Petroleum Industry Act and other policy measures have formed part of the government’s efforts to create a more predictable operating environment.
According to the government, the reforms have helped improve investor confidence and attract new investments into the upstream sector.
However, maintaining the momentum will require continued investment, stable regulations, improved security and reliable infrastructure.
Higher production cannot be sustained simply by increasing the number of active rigs. Operators also need secure access to producing assets, functional evacuation infrastructure and a predictable regulatory environment.
Security Remains Critical to Production Growth
Security continues to play an important role in Nigeria’s oil production outlook.
For years, crude theft, pipeline vandalism and other disruptions have reduced production and affected the ability of operators to evacuate crude efficiently.
Consequently, improved security around oil-producing assets and transportation infrastructure will remain essential if Nigeria wants to sustain higher production levels.
The recent production gains therefore create an opportunity, but they also place greater emphasis on protecting the infrastructure and investments responsible for the recovery.
Government Targets Higher Production
Despite the reported increase, the Federal Government is not presenting the current level as the final target.
The Ministry of Petroleum Resources has stated that Nigeria needs to push production above current levels and continue developing new reserves.
The government has also set ambitious production targets for the coming years, which would require further exploration, additional drilling, new projects and sustained investment.
Achieving those targets will depend on maintaining investor confidence and ensuring that oil-producing assets can operate efficiently.
What Higher Production Means for Nigeria
Higher oil production could strengthen government revenue and improve Nigeria’s ability to meet its energy and economic obligations.
It could also support the wider petroleum value chain by increasing demand for drilling services, engineering, logistics, transportation and other oilfield services.
However, production growth alone does not guarantee broad economic benefits.
The country must also ensure that increased petroleum revenues translate into productive investments, infrastructure, human capital development and stronger economic diversification.
A Sector Still Facing Major Challenges
While the reported increase represents a notable improvement, Nigeria’s oil industry continues to face structural challenges.
The country must manage declining mature fields, develop new reserves, attract long-term capital and reduce production losses.
Furthermore, global energy markets continue to change, creating pressure for oil-producing countries to maximise the value of their resources while preparing for a more diversified energy future.
Therefore, the latest production figures should be viewed as part of an ongoing recovery rather than the end of Nigeria’s petroleum-sector challenges.
Production Recovery Sets the Next Challenge
Lokpobiri’s disclosure places Nigeria’s recent oil production recovery at the centre of the government’s petroleum-sector reform agenda.
With production and drilling activity both substantially higher than the levels reported when the administration assumed office, the immediate challenge is now to sustain that momentum.
Ultimately, the next phase will depend on whether Nigeria can convert higher production into sustained investment, stronger revenues, expanded local participation and long-term economic value.
For the oil and gas industry, the reported rise to about 1.824 million barrels per day signals renewed activity. For the government, however, the bigger challenge will be maintaining that growth while creating the conditions for Nigeria to produce more efficiently, attract further investment and derive greater value from its petroleum resources.
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