A storm is heading towards the gulf coast, ending what was a quiet start to the Atlantic hurricane season. Tropical storm Isaias intensified into a hurricane early Thursday morning—making it the first hurricane four months into the Atlantic season. Currently a strong Category 2 hurricane, Isaias could reach Category 3 before making landfall sometime in the next two days.
Here’s what to know.
What areas are in Hurricane Isaias’s path?
The storm is expected to make landfall along the central Gulf Coast on Friday night or early Saturday, bringing the threat of heavy rain and flash flooding to the regions in its path. A hurricane warning is currently in place from Ocean Springs, Miss., to the Bay-Gulf County line in Florida.
Some coastal residents of Florida’s Okaloosa County have been put under evacuation order. Officials have also asked out-of-town visitors to leave the impacted area. Additionally, all three county airports are scheduled to close Thursday evening. Florida Gov. Therefore, ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 25 counties in the Panhandle and Big Bend regions.
Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey also issued a state of emergency for 40 counties. And the state’s 53rd Annual National Shrimp Festival, set to take place in Gulf Shores, Ala., was cancelled due to the storm.
Oil companies operating in the Gulf of Mexico have begun cutting production and evacuating non-essential personnel from facilities in preparation for the storm. It’s a risky time to be slowing down production. America’s emergency oil stockpile is at the lowest level since 1982 as the war in Iran has squeezed the supply chain and pushed up prices.
Why has it been a “quiet” Atlantic hurricane season?
It’s been a relatively quiet hurricane season along the Atlantic. Hurricane Isaias now holds the record as the latest forming first hurricane in the Atlantic Basin—breaking the previous record set in 1905 by Hurricane Four by a mere three and a half hours, according to Accuweather. Isaias is the ninth named storm of the Atlantic season—and the first to reach hurricane strength.
The lull is attributable to El Niño. The phenomenon increases vertical wind shear across the Atlantic, making it harder for thunderstorms to turn into hurricanes. It also temporarily warms up the Pacific Ocean—which often leads to more hurricane activity on a coast that doesn’t typically see a lot of hurricanes.
There have been a number of hurricanes in the Pacific this year. By Sept. 28, the number of named storms in the region was at 20, with nine reaching hurricane strength.
Will El Niño intensify the storm?
El Niño is not likely to intensify the storm. In fact, it often has the opposite effect, weakening hurricane activity along the Atlantic.
Even still—the storm’s impact will be felt. The National Hurricane Center said on Thursday morning that the storm is expected to “remain a dangerous hurricane through landfall.”
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